Underlay

October 16 – 2006

Last Thursday, 2 hours into a 9 hour sportsbook session at the Wynne Casino, we stumbled upon an odds sheet for the Premiership. The first line:

Chelsea 1/3 (current) 5/9 (opened)

We will not pretend Chelsea are anything but favorites to take the Premiership title. But how on Earth could anyone claim their performance thus far merits a price shorter than that offered on opening day? Is it because Sheva looks to be such a bargain? Frank Lampard has regained his form? Sean Wright- Phillips has rediscovered his talent? Mourinho is behaving less like the deranged douchebag he is?

Yes, Chelsea are topping the table, but a quick look at their results hardly justifies the Wynne’s reduced price. Nonetheless, American punters have hammered the Blues into the realm of tremendous underlays, and this is yet another case of prawn-eater mentality. Chelsea are the club du jour, and have replaced ManU as the favorite team of hangers-on and wannabes everywhere.

Now, that’s not to say Chelsea won’t win the Prem: between Arsenal’s poor start and United’s thin ranks, they still look the most likely. But to take the Wynne’s current offer, you have to believe that Chelsea would win ‘06/’07 better than 3 out of every 4 times played. The only people who believe this are Chelsea fans who don’t know who Gianfanco Zola is, and 1/2 of the nerd-fest to our right.

Are there worse prices at the Wynne? Yes: Tottenham at 75/1 is ridiculous (after opening at 50/1, Spurs may as well be 20,000/1 and I’d still save my buck). ManU at 7/2 is a stretch, and the field at 150/1 deserves double or triple that. Arsenal in their current form are tempting at 7/1, but that’s still not an overlay. So, what to do? Nothing. Punters need to know when to sit one out, and this is one such year. In the meantime, why not take a long look at West Ham (7/1) to go down. We’re going to cry now.