Fantasy Premiership Preview

A fantasy league championship does not represent a hollow victory: it is a confirmation of your overarching knowledge of the game and your general superiority in intelligence. In the year of bragging rights it ushers in, your crown allows you to berate friends and coworkers in a manner otherwise unacceptable. You are the resident soccer genius. You are the dog’s nuts.

But to get there, you have to do your homework…or, at least, have someone do it for you. The Soccernista Fantasy Premiership Preview will give you the inside edge on your ignorant-ass competition. We’ll let you know which players to pick, and which to avoid like the plague. So read on, mein freund, and when you’re dancing around the office with a coffee pot on your head, singing about how your boss is skippering a shite football team, drop us a thank you. It’s all that we ask.
NOTE: All tips refer to the very excellent and very free league at premierleague.com

The Henry Factor
Last year’s leading goalscorer will be the priciest player in the fantasy market. Is it worth plunking down such a sum on a single player?

You may not have a choice. Because so many fantasy managers enlist the services of the Frenchman, you can’t afford to be left behind when Henry catches fire. The windfall of points will hit three to four times per year, and league rankings will quickly separate the Henry-haves from the Henry-have-nots. Sure, you can try and differentiate yourself by passing on Thierry, but why risk it? Pick him, and use your remaining spots to out-manage the competition.

Promoted Poachers.
Just like when Hickory High School went to the state tournament and measured the height of the hoop, a few promoted strikers will find the goal in the Premiership to be the same one they routinely found in the League Championship. Last year it was Darren Bent. The year before, Andy Johnson. This year, it will pay to have the promoted striker who brings his strike-rate with him to the next level. From Reading, Kevin Doyle’s 18 tallies in ‘05/’06 may indicate top-flight readiness. For Watford, it’s Darius Henderson who may fit the bill. And for Sheffield United? Don’t hold your breath: we’ve seen Geoff Horsfield before in the Premiership, and like him better in the Championship.

Something to Prove.
Need is a powerful motivator: why else would topless modeling photos exist of every actress on the planet? When looking for goalscorers, focus on those who, for whatever reason, need to score goals. Craig Bellamy, a player who awaits trial for assault, needs to score goals in order to justify Liverpool’s confidence. Tottenham’s Jermaine Defoe needs to score goals to resurrect his career. Jose Antonio Reyes of Arsenal needs to score goals to secure a move back to Spain. Identify need, and the topless photos, er, goals will pour forth.

The Underlay.
A number of striker’s will have trouble justifying their price, but there’s one in particular that stands out as an outrageously bad deal: Theo Walcott. The Arsenal youngster has generated a great deal of hype, despite never appearing in a Premiership match. The fantasy market has him valued higher than a number of proven goalscorers including Marlon Harewood and James Beattie. No matter what you think of his potential, Walcott would be overvalued at half his current asking price. A wait and see attitude is advised.

The search for midfield value.
The bulk of your team’s points will likely come from the midfield: the numbers are greater and the points-per-goal awarded are too. Most players will be eager to include either Frank Lampard or Steven Gerrard, and you certainly could do worse. But midfielders from mid-table teams will produce a greater points return for their value. Kevin Nolan, for instance, earned 156 points last year compared to Gerard’s 176. The difference in price? Gerard can currently be had for 10.5 while Nolan can be yours for a mere 8.0, a difference of nearly 25%. Similar cases can be made for mid-table midfielders such as Luis Boa Morte and Stelios Giannakopoulos. Both offer stellar production at reasonable prices.

Defenders who score are worth their weight in gold.
Like Chinese restaurants with windows, defenders who can score are a rare find. When you come upon one, it is truly a gift from the fantasy league gods. Chelsea’s John Terry (4 in ‘05/’06) and William Gallas (5) both fit the bill, and their price reflects their ability. The sleeper, however, is Portsmouth’s Matthew Taylor (6). Considering he can currently be had for the bargain basement price of 5.5, Taylor represents one of the best buys in the game.

A new reason to hate the Nevilles.
Cautions and ejections hurt the bottom line, and no player hurt it more last year than Phil Neville. Amassing 10 yellow cards and 2 red cards, the Evertonian cost his supporters 26 points over the course of the season. Avoiding Phil (and his brother Gary, on principle) is a must. Other frequent violators include Robbie Savage, Lucas Neill, and Edgar Davids. Invest at your own risk.

When is it bad to have the best?
The top goalkeeper in the Premiership, Peter Cech, also happens to be the most expensive. Cech, however, was not the highest point producer of all goalkeepers last year. In fact, six other keepers ranked above him, with the reasonably priced Edwin Van der Sar tops among these. In terms of pure value, though, you’ll have a hard time beating Blackburn’s Brad Friedel. He generated 148 points last year, making his current valuation of 5.0 look like chump change. Buy American.

The new boys.
Somehow the grass was always greener, and getting what you previously couldn’t have can be exciting. This phenomena has led to an all-out fantasy rush to acquire the services of Chelsea’s big summer signing, Andriy Shevchenko. But unless you think Chelsea will score twice as many goals this year as last, it bears reminding that “Sheva” will be sharing the plate with Chelsea’s most prolific scorer, Didier Drogba. Can they both produce numbers justifying their insanely high prices? If you doubt it, look elsewhere for new blood. Our tip: Tottenham’s Bulgarian signing, Dimitar Berbatov, not only has a ridiculous first name, he scores in batches as well.

Last tip.
Two words: Louis Saha.

Good luck to all the fantasy managers this year…May your strikers stay healthy and your transfer kitty stay full.