A Foregone Conclusion?

In the newest Nike advertising campaign, Eric Cantona chides players for being “cheats and liars”, recommends we hold on to our childlike innocence, and asks that “honor” (hard “h”) be put back in the game. All this from a man who once flew into the stands at Crystal Palace and delivered a kung-fu kick to an opposing fan’s chest.

But that is only the second most ridiculous thing Nike expects us to take seriously. The first? That Brazil will win the World Cup.

And it’s not just Nike. ABC and the ESPN networks deliver daily Brazil-worship orgies, the best of which featured Rob Stone standing in a field of daisies professing his “love” of Brazil. I kid you not.

While this type of overexposure might do nothing more than cause eyes to roll, genuine fans of Brazil should be genuinely concerned about their team’s performance thus far. Based on their displays, I for one have no problem going out on the following very short limb: Brazil will not lift the World Cup in 2006. Saying that in polite company is akin to kicking a dog. But this is a dog I’ll kick willingly, and here are 5 reasons why:

Parreira is married to a fat man.
Loyalty to your fellow man is an admirable quality. Loyalty to overweight strikers is a crime against humanity. Brazil manager Carlos Alberto Parreira goes way back with Ronaldo; he selected the then boy-phenom to the 1994 Brazil side that went on to win the World Cup. 12 years on, the boy-wonder-turned-goal-scoring-great has landed in Germany with a double chin and a barrel physique. Parreira gifted him a place in the lineup against Croatia, and Ronaldo turned in a stinker. Fans, media, and the president of Brazil all called for Ronaldo to be replaced. He wasn’t, and looked only marginally better in the Australia match. His 2 goals against Japan will serve only to falsely validate Parreira’s faith. Ronaldo will continue to be a big fat zero for Brazil. And zeros do not deliver silverware.

Ronaldinho fits better with Barca.
Ronaldinho has not played well. Aside from toothy grins (contractually obligated, no doubt) he has contributed little. He will, one feels, eventually find his form, but the question remains: is he as useful to Brazil as he is to his club side?

Ronaldinho is a special player, and special players demand accommodation. Barcelona have surrounded Ronaldinho with a cast of remarkably professional and sturdy international veterans. The calming influence of players such as Edmilson, Mark van Bommel, and Rafael Marquez is a perfect foil for the frenetic energy of Ronaldinho. Brazil are short, very short, on calming influences. Cafu is noteworthy, but he is lost in a team that values entertainment as highly as results. Ronaldinho, coupled with dynamic players Kaka, Robinho, Roberto Carlos, and Ze Roberto, may make for too sweet a cocktail.

Kaka will not, and should not, play second fiddle.
The pacy AC milan midfielder has been the bright spot for the Brazilians thus far. His long-legged jaunts from midfield have been a joy to watch, and every time he touches the ball defenses are forced to back-pedal. So what’s the problem?

All of his attacking moments seem to be self-made. Ronaldinho finds him when it suits him: if Kaka makes a forward run that might demand Ronaldinho thread a needle or perform a back-heel, Kaka will see the ball. But a simple ball given over out of common sense? Doesn’t happen. Kaka is special enough to be catered to and schemed around. Ronaldinho is too, and fancies himself as such. There may not, however, be enough to go around. When the knockout phase begins, the tough choices need to be made regarding roles, and under-emphasizing Kaka will prove costly.

Robinho is not ready.
Brazil fans have been maintaining confidence in their team through a bizarre insurance program; the Robinho Plan. In its current form the plan plays out like this: Our two first choice strikers don’t need to play well because Robinho will replace them, and he’s better anyway. So far, so good. But the days of Robinho terrorizing defenders like Tony Popovic and Yuji Nakazawa are numbered. When Brazil moves through the knockout stage they will come up against seasoned, world class defenders. Brazilian fans will eventually get their wish and find the 138 pound Robinho installed up front permanently. We’ll then see if they regret putting the hopes of a nation on the shoulders of a boy.

Argentina.
If they meet it will not be until the final in Berlin. Argentina are looking like an especially well organized, well managed side. In Lionel Messi they may have the game’s next superstar. For Brazil to beat a side like Argentina, they will be forced to deal with periods of prolonged pressure. Are the Samba Boys capable of employing an “all hands on deck” defense of their own net? Doubtful, as soccer with a smile is always easier to accomplish against lesser opponents. In other words, you won’t find commentators waxing poetically over Heinze, Tevez, or Crespo. They are the stuff of rock quarries, not daisy fields, and may prove the difference when Brazil move from the marketing department onto the match surface.